Lucas critique

The Lucas Critique, named for Robert Lucas's work on macroeconomic policymaking, says that it's naive to try to predict the effect of a policy experiment based purely on correlations in historical data, especially high-level aggregated historical data. The basic idea pre-dates Lucas's contribution, but in a 1976 paper he drove the point home that this simple notion invalidated policy advice conditioned on the response of estimated system of equation models. Because the parameters of those models were not structural – that is, not policy-invariant – they would necessarily change whenever policy – the rules of the game – was changed. Any policy advice would then be potentially misleading. This argument called into question the prevailing large-scale econometric models that lacked foundations in dynamic economic theory.
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Lucas critique
(Econ) Luận điểm phê phán của Lucas+ Bài phê bình về việc sử dụng mô hình kinh tế lượng để đánh giá kết quả của các quyết định chính sách vì các tham số ước lượng ngầm bao hàm ảnh hưởng của chính sách.
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