proubable «qu'on peut prouver», 1285; lat. probabilis, de probare. =>Prouver.bar-estâd-ani (pbp.)
bar-šod-ani
piš-âyand(-a) (Ašuri)
(piš-)âyand-ani
ehtemâl (ar.)
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=> fra. selon toute probabilité
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A wise man, therefore, proportions his belief to the evidence. In such conclusions as are founded on an infallible experience, he expects the event with the last degree of assurance, and regards his past experience as a full proof of the future existence of that event. In other cases, he proceeds with more caution: He weighs the opposite experiments: He considers which side is supported by the greater number of experiments: to that side he inclines, with doubt and hesitation; and when at last he fixes his judgement, the evidence exceeds not what we properly call probability. All probability, then, supposes an opposition of experiments and observations, where the one side is found to overbalance the other, and to produce a degree of evidence, proportioned to the superiority. A hundred instances or experiments on one side, and fifty on another, afford a doubtful expectation of any event; though a hundred uniform experiments, with only one that is contradictory, reasonably beget a pretty strong degree of assurance. In all cases, we must balance the opposite experiments, where they are opposite, and deduct the smaller number from the greater, in order to know the exact force of the superior evidence.
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=> standard
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(David HUME,
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding)
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Next in certainty to knowledge is probability, which Locke defines as the appearance of agreement or disagreement of ideas with each other. Like knowledge, probability admits of degrees, the highest of which attaches to propositions endorsed by the general consent of all people in all ages.
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The next-highest degree of probability belongs to propositions that hold not universally but for the most part, such as “people prefer their own private advantage to the public good.” This sort of proposition is typically derived from history. A still lower degree of probability attaches to claims about specific facts, for example, that a man named Julius Caesar lived a long time ago.
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Probability can concern not only objects of possible sense experience, as most of the foregoing examples do, but also things that are outside the sensible realm, such as angels, devils, magnetism, and molecules.
"epistemology." Encyclopædia Britannica from Encyclopædia Britannica 2007 Ultimate Reference Suite. (2006)
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Probability then, being to supply the defect of our knowledge and to guide us where that fails, is always conversant about propositions whereof we have no certainty, but only some inducements to receive them for true. The grounds of it are, in short, these two following:--
First, The conformity of anything with our own knowledge, observation, and experience.
Secondly, The testimony of others, vouching their observation and experience.
In the testimony of others is to be considered:
1. The number.
2. The integrity.
3. The skill of the witnesses.
4. The design of the author, where it is a testimony out of a book cited.
5. The consistency of the parts, and circumstances of the relation.
6. Contrary testimonies.
(LOCKE,
Of the Degrees of Assent)
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Where certainty is unattainable, a rational man will give most weight to the most probable opinion, while retaining others, which have an appreciable probability, in his mind as hypotheses which subsequent evidence may show to be preferable. This, of course, assumes that it is possible in many cases to ascertain facts and probabilities by an objective method--i.e., a method which will lead any two careful people to the same result.
(B. RUSSELL, Sceptical essays, p. 33)
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There are two kinds of probability, of which one is exemplified by statistics, and the other by doubtfulness.
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The subject of probability owed its origin to the interest of aristocrats in games of chance.
(B. RUSSELL, My philosophical development, p. 142)
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