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Additive Season, Exponential Trend
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Additive Season, Exponential Trend
In this Time Series model, the simple exponential smoothing forecasts are "enhanced" both by an exponential trend component (independently smoothed with parameter ) and an additive seasonal component (smoothed with parameter ). For example, suppose we wanted to forecast the monthly revenue for a resort area. Every year, revenue may increase by a certain percentage or factor, resulting in an exponential trend in overall revenue. In addition, there could be an additive seasonal component, for example a particular fixed (and slowly changing) amount of added revenue during the December holidays.
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